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The formula is called an expectancy model, or expectancy-valence model, because it largely depends on tile person's expectations of reward (see Pintrich, 2003; Stipek, 2002; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000). What this theory implies is that people's motivation to achieve something depends on tile product of their estimation of their chance of success (perceived probability of success, Ps) and the value they place on success (incentive value of success, Is). For example, if Mark says, " I think I can make tile honor roll if I try, and it is very important to me to make the honor roll," then he will probably work hard to make the honor roll. However, one very important aspect of the M = Psx If formula is that it is multiplicative, meaning that if people believe that their probability of success is zero or if they do not value success, then their motivation will be zero. If Mark would like very much to make the honor roll but believes that he has not a prayer of doing so, lie will be unmotivated. If his chances are actually good but he does not care about malting the honor roll, he will also be unmotivated. Wigfield (1995) found that students' beliefs that they were capable and their valuing of academic success were, taken together, more important than their actual ability in predicting their achievement.
Atkinson (1964) added to the aspect by important an expectancy theory in pointing out That under Certain Circumstances an an overly the high Probability of CAN by success the BE
detrimental to Motivation. If Mark is very able, it might be so easy for him to make the honor roll that he need not do his best. Atkinson (1958) explained this byjarglb ing that there is a relationship between probability of success and incentive value of success such that success in an easy task is not as valued as is success in a difficult task Therefore motivation should be at a maximum at moderate levels of probability of success. God example, two evenly matched tennis players will probably play their hardest. Unevenly matched players will not play as hard; the poor player might want very much to win but will have too low a probability of success to try very hard, and the better player will not value winning enough to exert his or her best effort. Confirming Atkinson's theory, more recent research has shown that a person's motivation increases as task difficulty increases up to a point at which the person decides that success is very unlikely or that the goal is not worth the effort (DeBacker & Nelson, 1999). This and other research findings indicate that moderate to difficult (but not impossible) tasks are better than easy ones for learning and motivation (Brophy, 1999: Clifford, 1990; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000).
Implications of Expectancy Theory for Education The most important implication of expectancy theory is the commonsense proposition that tasks for students should be neither too easy nor too difficult. If some students believe that they are likely to get an A no matter what they do, then their motivation will not be at a maximum. Similarly, if some students feel certain to fail no matter what they do, their motivation will be minimal. Therefore grading systems should be set up so that earning an A is difficult (but possible) for as many students as feasible and so that earning a low grade is possible for students who exert little effort. Success must be within the reach, but not the easy reach, of all students.
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