Сценарий демографической ситуации в

Сценарий демографической ситуации в России до 2016 года
Госкомстат России подготовил новый прогноз численности населения страны до 2016 года. Причем предложил сразу три возможных варианта
развития событий в зависимости от того, что у нас будет происходить в социально-экономической сфере. В результате общая численность населения к 2016 году у нас может быть в лучшем случае 138 млн. 748 тыс. человек, в худшем - 128 млн. 686 тыс., а по среднему варианту - 134 млн. 837 тыс. человек. Так называемый "высокий вариант" эволюции рождаемости исходит, из того, что наметившийся подъем рождаемости - явление долговременное. Специалисты считают, что это возможно только в том случае, если по оптимистическому варианту пойдет социально-экономическое развитие страны, то есть уровень и качество жизни будут повышаться. В то же время повышение уровня жизни роста рождаемости не гарантирует. Низкий вариант исходит из неблагополучной социально-экономической ситуации. Средний вариант, как и высокий, предполагает, что увеличение рождаемости в последние два года - закономерное явление. Однако темпы роста постепенно замедлятся. Этот сценарий тоже предполагает улучшение социально-экономической ситуации, но более медленными темпами. Относительно миграции все варианты прогнозируют постепенное сокращение миграционного потока в Россию из стран СНГ' и Балтии в силу старения и убыли наших соотечественников в этих странах. Что касается эмиграции из России, ' то у авторов прогнозов мнения прямо противоположные. Одни считают, что нынешнее снижение численности эмигрантов - явление кратковременное, и грядет новая волна отъездив, другие, наоборот, убеждены, что желающих покинуть Родину в ближайшей перспективе будет немного. В целом, считают эксперты, которые рассчитали так называемый "средний вариант" (исходя из коэффициента естественного прироста населения, который аккумулирует в себе все плюсы и минусы демографических процессов), к 2016 году из 89 регионов Российской Федерации относительно благополучными будут П. Прирост населения прогнозируется в Чечне, Дагестане, Ингушетии, Туве. Самое же большое сокращение населения ожидается в Ивановской, Смоленской, Рязанской, Калужской, Новгородской областях, Москве, Санкт-Петербурге.

Результаты (английский) 1:

The script of the demographic situation in Russia before the year 2016Goskomstat of Russia has prepared a new population forecast to the year 2016. And proposed three possible optionsdevelopments depending on that we will take place in the socio-economic sphere. As a result, the total population by the year 2016 we can be at best 138 million. 748 thousand. people in the worst-128 million. 686 ths. and medium variant-134 million. 837 thousand. man. So-called "high option" evolution of fertility comes from the fact that the recent rise in fertility lasting phenomenon. Experts believe that this is possible only if the optimistic version will go the country's socio-economic development, that is, the level and quality of life will increase. At the same time improving living standards growth in the birth rate is not guaranteed. Low option comes from poor socio-economic situation. Medium variant, as high, suggests that the increase in the birth rate over the past two years-natural phenomenon. However, the growth rate will slow down gradually. This scenario also involves improving the socio-economic situation, but at a slower pace. Concerning migration, all variants predict gradual reduction of migratory flow to Russia from the CIS countries and Baltic States ' effect of aging and loss of our compatriots in those countries. With regard to emigration from Russia, ' the authors ' predictions have the opposite opinion. Some believe that the current decline in the number of emigrants is momentary, and the coming new wave of ot″ezdiv, others, on the contrary, we are convinced that those wishing to leave their homeland in the near future will be a little. In General, experts say, that calculated by the so-called "medium variant" (based on natural growth factor that accumulates all the pluses and minuses of demographic processes), to the 2016 year of 89 regions of the Russian Federation concerning the wealthy will p. population growth projected in Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Tove. Most large population reduction is expected in Smolensk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, Kaluga, Novgorod oblasts, Moscow, St. Petersburg.

Результаты (английский) 2:

The scenario of the demographic situation in Russia until 2016
Goskomstat of Russia has prepared a new national population forecast until 2016. And immediately he suggested three possible
scenario depending on what we will be in the socio-economic sphere. As a result, the total population by 2016, we can at best be 138 million 748 thousand persons, and at worst -.. 128 million 686 thousand, and the medium variant -.. 134 million 837 thousand people... The so-called "high variant" fertility evolution comes from the fact that the incipient rise in the birth rate - a long-term phenomenon. Experts believe that this is only possible if the optimistic variant will socio-economic development of the country, ie, the level and quality of life will increase. At the same time raising the standard of living does not guarantee the birth rate. Low option comes from disadvantaged socio-economic situation. Average option, as well as high, suggests that the increase in the birth rate in the past two years - a natural phenomenon. However, the growth rate gradually slowed down. This scenario also involves improving the social and economic situation, but at a slower pace. Regarding the migration of all variants predict a gradual reduction of the migration flow to Russia from CIS countries' and Baltic states by virtue of aging and the loss of our fellow citizens in these countries. With regard to emigration from Russia, 'then the opposite opinion forecasts authors. Some believe that the current decline in the number of emigrants - a short-term phenomenon, and will come a new wave of departures, while others are convinced that those wishing to leave their homeland in the near future will be a little. In general, experts say, that calculated the so-called "middle way" (based on the rate of natural population growth, which accumulates all the pros and cons of demographic processes), in 2016 from 89 Russian regions are relatively prosperous P. Population growth is forecast in Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Tuva. The most large population decline is expected in the Ivanovo, Smolensk, Ryazan, Kaluga, Novgorod region, Moscow, St. Petersburg.

Результаты (английский) 3:

the demographic situation in russia until 2016goskomstat had prepared a new forecast population until 2016. with the proposed three optionsdevelopment depending on what we will be in the economic and social spheres. as a result, the total population by 2016, we can have the best case 138 million. 748). the man in the worst - 128 million. 686. a secondary option to 134 million. 837 thousand. the man. the so-called "high way" the evolution of birth comes from what the rise in fertility and long-term. experts believe that this is possible only if the оптимистическому version will be the country"s social and economic development, that is, the level and quality of life will improve. at the same time to improve the standard of living rising birth rate is not guaranteed. the low version comes from the difficult economic and social situation. the average option, like the high, implies that an increase in the birth rate in the past two years, is a regular phenomenon. however, the growth rate gradually slows. this scenario also involves improving the socio-economic situation, but at a slower pace. on the migration of all the options forecast a gradual reduction in the migration flow into russia from cis countries and the baltic states" due to ageing and shrinkage of our compatriots in these countries. with regard to the emigration from russia, "the projections into the opposite views. some believe that the current decline in the number of emigrants is short-lived, and a new wave of отъездив, others, on the contrary, we are convinced that wishing to leave the country in the short term will be a little bit. in general, experts argue that had the so-called "middle way" (on the basis of the rate of natural population growth, which accumulates in the pros and cons of demographic processes) by 2016 from 89 regions of the russian federation to be in p. population growth is expected in chechnya, dagestan, ingushetia, tuva. most large decline is expected in ivan, smolensk, ryazan, kaluga, novgorod areas, moscow, st. petersburg.